What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got Wrong

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

67% : At the moment, Trump leads Harris in the national popular vote by 3.5 percent (51 to 47.5 percent).
54% : Trump won the state where Selzer has been a fixture for decades by 13 points.
52% : The most accurate 2024 national pollsters were a mix of those who seem to generally expect Republican performance to be stronger than others (e.g., AtlasIntel, whose final poll had Trump up by a point) and a few MSM polls that struck gold (e.g., The Wall Street Journal, whose final poll had Trump up by three points).
50% : About the only exception to the too-close-to-call pattern of battleground polling averages was a consensus that Trump had a solid lead in Arizona (2 to 3 percent per FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, the Times, the Post, and RealClearPolitics).
47% : In Arizona, "liberal" pollsters like Marist and Data for Progress showed Trump ahead down the stretch.
44% : There are a lot of votes still out in Arizona -- there and in Nevada (with some but fewer ballots still out) are where Trump has his biggest leads of five points (52 percent to 47 percent).
30% : Does that say something about pollsters, about Republican voters, or specifically about Trump?

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