Can Nevada Democrats Beat the Odds?

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

55% : Three of the state's four members of Congress are Democrats, as are both of its US senators; a solid majority of Nevadans are pro-choice, rejecting the anti-abortion extremism pushed by many in the GOP; and the state's electorate seems likely to pass a ranked-choice voting initiative this November.
46% : Union organizing efforts in the Las Vegas area -- the Culinary Workers, aware of the notoriously anti-union positions that Trump has taken over the years, knocked on more than 1 million doors statewide in 2022 and are likely to launch a similarly impressive effort this year -- may still give the Democrats an edge as the election nears.
43% : But by early 2024, as much of the public soured on Biden's leadership, he was increasingly coming to believe that Trump could take the state "in a squeaker.
40% : Last year, the strategist gave the edge to Biden when it came to any rematch with Trump.
36% : Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who is challenging Trump for the nomination but knew she couldn't beat him in a caucus tailored to his strengths, made the strategic decision to sacrifice delegates by running as the highest-profile candidate in the primary, which she lost to the ballot option for "None of these candidates.
33% : They're deeply suspicious of the early polls showing Trump considerably ahead and believe that Nevada, with its growing number of independent voters, has become increasingly difficult to poll accurately.
33% : Even though Las Vegas is thriving again, there's a lingering anger at the massive economic dislocation caused by the pandemic public health response -- and, he says, many people he knows who opposed it are going to vote for Trump as the face of opposition to lockdown mandates.
25% : Trump's team has been aggressively courting those voters in recent months -- some national polls show Trump beating Biden among Latino voters, while a November poll of Latino voters in Nevada shows Biden still leading among that group, but by a far smaller margin than he commanded in 2020.

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