Steve Kornacki: The key voter shifts that led to Trump's battleground state sweep

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73% : And in Navajo, Trump more than doubled his 8-point victory from four years ago, besting Harris by 17 points.
67% : Overall, Trump improved on his 2020 showing in 153 of Georgia's 159 counties.
66% : In smaller, Latino-heavy cities in eastern Pennsylvania, Trump made big strides, including double-digit improvements in the state's three Hispanic-majority cities.
60% : Meanwhile, next door in Macomb County, with its blue-collar cities and suburbs, Trump expanded his winning margin by 30,000 votes compared to 2020.
58% : Trump and Harris tied among Nevada's Hispanic voters after Biden won them by 26 points in 2020.
57% : But the movement was most pronounced in the eastern part of the state, where Trump posted seven of his 10 biggest county-level improvements compared to four years ago.
56% : About 450 miles northwest of Vegas, in the state's other major population center, in and around Reno in Washoe County, Trump also made strides.
54% : That all led to Trump becoming the first Republican presidential candidate since 2004 to carry Nevada -- and the first from either party to win the state while still losing both Clark and Washoe counties.
53% : And this year, Trump made further gains in every one of them, winning all but one.
51% : Overall, Pennsylvania shifted 3 points to Trump between 2020 and 2024.
50% : Key to this: Deep inroads with Latino voters that helped Trump erode the massive advantage that Democrats depend on in cities throughout the region.
50% : Home to Madison and its well-to-do suburbs, Democrats had managed to attain increased pluralities here in every election this century, with Biden carrying it by 181,000 votes over Trump (or 76%-23%).
47% : The statewide exit poll -- which overwhelmingly comprises Clark residents -- recorded just how much ground Trump gained with these voters.
46% : Analysis: Across the states that decided the election, Trump made further inroads with rural and blue-collar voters while cutting into key parts of the Democrats' base.
44% : That breakthrough now looks more like a one-off, with Trump reclaiming the county by more than 70,000 votes this time around.
44% : Anchored by the college town of Tucson, Pima is a blue county, but Trump managed to reduce Democrats' advantage from 18 points down to 15 -- yielding a net shift of about 20,000 votes.
44% : And Trump carried Asian American voters in the state by 3 points after losing them by 29 points four years ago.
39% : The vote shifts in Wisconsin were momentous, but compared to the rest of the battlegrounds, they were also small, with Trump turning what was a 20,682-vote loss in 2020 into a 29,687-vote victory in 2024.
39% : Trump managed to turn the tables with marginal gains across rural Wisconsin, newfound strength in the state's (relatively few) Latino-heavy pockets, and by slowing defections from Milwaukee's big Republican suburbs.
37% : The problem for Harris is that these gains were more than offset by her regression in the higher-population blob counties of Fulton, Gwinnett and DeKalb, where there are concentrations of nonwhite demographic groups that moved significantly toward Trump.
37% : In these places, Trump built slightly on what were already landslide margins.
36% : Also crucial for Trump: He clawed back support from white blue-collar voters who rallied to him in 2016 but defected to Biden in 2020.
35% : But Trump still registered a net gain of more than 17,000 votes from five areas in the state with a significant Hispanic population.
34% : On paper, Michigan appeared to be a heavy lift for Trump as the battleground state he lost by the widest margin in 2020 -- 154,188 votes, or about 3 percentage points.
32% : Meanwhile, Trump saw his margins tick slightly upward across most of small-town and rural North Carolina.
32% : Trump also flipped Bucks County, which has a larger share of white voters without college degrees than the other three Philadelphia collar counties.
27% : After losing Clark by 9.4 points to Biden four years ago, Trump fell only 2.6 points short this time around.
25% : Washoe is a quarter Hispanic and has a much smaller Asian American population than Clark, but the demographics were friendly enough that Trump only lost it by a point.
15% : After losing Arizona's Latino vote by 24 points to Biden, Trump slashed his deficit to just 10 points this time.
15% : Biden carried both by landslide margins in 2020, but Harris suffered massive defections (presumably due to the Israel-Hamas war) and outright lost each city to Trump.

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