The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

82% : The latest polling averages show Trump running 0.2 points ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania, while Harris leads nationally by 1.4 points.
65% : Nonetheless, Harris is performing better in Pennsylvania than Biden was earlier this year: The president was trailing Trump by more than 4 points when he left the race in late July.
54% : That year, Trump narrowly flipped all three states -- in Pennsylvania, largely thanks to big gains outside the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
51% : Instead, this mostly Gen X group of voters has moved to the left: In recent polls, it only preferred Trump by about 6 points, on average, compared with his 16-point advantage in 2020 (although note that the groups are slightly different given that four years have passed).
50% : If a poll included both a head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump and a version including third parties, we used the head-to-head version.
49% : Understandably, the 538 presidential forecast views Pennsylvania as a toss-up, with Trump winning a hair more than 1 in 2 simulations.
48% : An average of recent Pennsylvania polls found her ahead 79 percent to 17 percent among Black voters, but that would be well down from Biden's advantage in 2020 of 92 percent to 7 percent -- a potentially critical gain for Trump.
45% : ** Overall, voters without a four-year degree look likely to back Trump at a similar -- or even higher -- rate than in 2020:
45% : While we have no public polling of this race yet, the district's slim partisan lean (Trump won it by just 2.9 percentage points in 2020) keeps this race in the toss-up camp.
41% : In 2016, Pennsylvania swung to the right of the country, as Trump narrowly carried it by just under 1 point even as Democrat Hillary Clinton led nationally by about 2 points.
39% : By comparison, Trump won about 43 percent of his statewide votes from those two metro areas, so mid-sized communities and rural areas are more critical to his base.
35% : While we don't have much data that breaks down voters simultaneously by race and education specifically in Pennsylvania, state-level polling broken down by education more broadly suggests that Trump and Harris are both running around on par with their party's performance in 2020.
34% : On average, Trump leads Harris 55 percent to 41 percent among this group, compared with his 54 percent to 45 percent edge in the 2020 exit poll.
18% : In 2020, Pennsylvania once again saw an extremely close contest, but Biden managed to win it en route to defeating Trump.

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