Falling Shale Production Won't Bail Out OPEC+

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

52% : Another facet of this year's market balance cannot be ignored: production from non-OPEC+ countries other than the U.S.
46% : As oil prices loiter near 5- year lows and costs rise in the oil patch, expectations for U.S. shale oil production are becoming more pessimistic.
46% : The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the unwinding of voluntary production cuts in May and June to 410 tb/d from 180 tb/d is clearly the second most important factor, despite the group's argument that global oil inventories are low (very true) and the market can thus absorb the additional supply (not so obvious).
45% : The IEA is anticipating, even before the current economic turmoil, that U.S. production would grow slowly this year; other non-OPEC+ countries would account for the bulk of the growth, especially Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
45% : Even if the breakeven price for oil shale production is $50, that is the long-run marginal cost which includes capital costs.

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