Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 18 December

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

62% : Trump: yesterday's speech and the return of the 'strong state' (borders, energy and security) Facts Trump delivered a live speech from the White House on 17 December, outlining his agenda on the economy, immigration and energy, blaming the previous administration for part of the deterioration and presenting security measures.
53% : Regarding private funds, the verifiable and documented figure at EU level is ≈€28 billion in frozen Russian private (non-sovereign) assets.
52% : If the EU fails to resolve this, the message to Kyiv will be devastating: 'resist, but without guarantee'; and the message to Moscow even worse: 'hold on, because time is on your side'.
51% : The key figure today is ≈€210 billion in Russian sovereign assets frozen in the EU, with the largest concentration in Belgium, at Euroclear (around ≈€185-194 billion depending on the cut-off and methodology).
50% : The 'Russian assets summit': the EU discusses using frozen funds to support Ukraine (2026-27) Facts EU leaders are discussing a mechanism to finance Ukraine with a large loan backed by frozen Russian assets.
50% : Israel is consolidating its position as a strategic asset for the West in energy too, which increases its political margin in the face of European criticism that sometimes sins of selective moralism and little geostrategy.
48% : The anti-Iranian energy axis: the Israel-Egypt agreement (≈35 billion) and gas as regional architecture Detailed facts Israel and Egypt are moving towards a gas export agreement worth ≈$35 billion, with flow from Leviathan to Egyptian liquefaction plants until 2040.
47% : In Brussels, the EU summit is entering its decisive phase: the question is no longer whether to support Ukraine, but how to finance it without committing legal suicide and without giving the Kremlin a precedent for undermining confidence in the euro.
46% : At the same time, Reuters details how the EU is trying to save the pact by strengthening agricultural protections and safeguards in response to social and parliamentary pressure.
45% : Implications The EU wants to be a trading power, but it cannot do so against its own producers.
43% : And that is corrosive, because Moscow does not need to defeat the EU militarily; it is enough to fracture it.
42% : In Washington, the Trump administration is tightening its grip on the Chavista narco-state with a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, accompanying this gesture with a national discourse focused on security, border control and energy.
36% : The EU has €210 billion frozen by the Russian central bank, and yet it hesitates as if the problem were an accounting one.

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