IMF Lifts Growth Outlook On More Benign Tariffs

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

50% : Reuters said the IMF now predicts global real GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025, up from a July forecast of 3.0% and a more severe April forecast of 2.8% that came after Trump imposed broad global "reciprocal" tariffs, and a tit-for-tat escalation with China ensued.
50% : But Trump on Friday shattered the relative calm by threatening 100% duties on Chinese goods - on top of rates averaging 55% - in retaliation for Beijing's dramatically expanded export controls on rare earths.
40% : "Obviously, if this were to materialize, this would be a very significant risk for the global economy," Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview, adding escalation could cut growth forecasts significantly and add to uncertainty that is chilling investment and spending.

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