Inside the Nobel Peace Prize judging process (and why the liberals will never let Trump win)

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

70% : Some bookmakers still make Trump the favourite.
57% : Nobody has ever lobbied as hard or as openly for the Nobel Peace Prize as Donald Trump. Time and again he has laid claim to the world's most prestigious humanitarian award, most recently in his address to the UN General Assembly, where he asserted that he had solved seven "unendable" wars and saved millions of lives.
56% : The presidents of Gabon, Mauritania, Senegal, Liberia and Guinea-Bissau endorsed the idea when they met Trump at the White House that same month.
54% : Could Trump possibly be this year's laureate?
50% : Trump is not wrong to complain that the prize is awarded by and to "liberals".
50% : If the winner is not Trump, he adds, it had better be some "greatly admirable person or institution" whose victory cannot be challenged.
43% : That raises the question of whether Trump is even a nominee, given that he had been president for just 11 days by this year's deadline.
41% : Just 10 per cent of Norwegians surveyed said they would back Trump if they were eligible to vote in last year's US presidential election, and at least three members of this year's committee appear to share that antipathy.
40% : Nor, were Trump to win, would a recipient ever have been so controversial.
39% : Nordlinger says wryly: "Stranger things have happened - but not many." Even Christian Tybring-Gjedde, a former MP for Norway's Right-wing Progress Party, who nominated Trump in 2020, doubts he deserves it this year.
38% : "You never know what he'll do," says Stenersen. Nina Græger, the director of Oslo's Peace Research Institute, thinks Norwegian politicians and diplomats should be actively explaining to the people around Trump that the Norwegian government does not control the committee.
38% : "It will require some work," she warns. Tybring-Gjedde fears that Trump "really believes that the Norwegian government is responsible for handing out the peace prize, and that's very dangerous for Norway...
37% : Trump did preside over the Abraham Accords, whereby several Arab states recognised Israel in 2020, but that was five years ago and the deal has been largely eclipsed and undermined by subsequent events in the Middle East.
36% : Publicly Trump plays down his chances, saying that the prize is awarded by and to "liberals".
35% : Or Trump could retaliate.
35% : There are all kinds of punishments which Trump could make Norway suffer...
34% : Moreover, the committee jealously guards its independence from the Norwegian government - a point Trump appeared not to understand when he raised this year's prize with Stoltenberg.
33% : " What will Trump do if he is not named the winner on October 10?
31% : It could pointedly award the prize to one of the many multilateral institutions that Trump has scorned - the UN relief agency working in Gaza, the World Health Organisation, the International Criminal Court or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to name but a few.
30% : Nor does Trump leave the matter just to acolytes.
29% : Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump that he was nominating him for the prize when they met in July.
25% : How Trump would react is anyone's guess, but he is already aggrieved that Barack Obama, his predecessor, won the prize less than nine months after becoming president while he was overlooked throughout his first term: "If I were named Obama I'd have had the Nobel Prize given to me in 10 seconds," he has complained.
24% : Trump has since slapped 50 per cent tariffs on Indian imports, his bromance with Modi has collapsed and the leader of the world's most populous nation has instead cosied up to China.
22% : " Trump could merely rant against liberal bias and ram home the fact that the Nobel committee has made bad calls in the past.
17% : Last December, Frydnes, a former head of the writers' association PEN Norway, cited Trump as he lamented the "erosion of freedom of expression even in democratic nations".

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