Six Reasons Why Trump's Iran Negotiations Have a Greater Chance of Success

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

62% : Now, in what is expected to be his final term, Trump is focused on cementing a lasting legacy.
58% : Second, President Trump is motivated to secure a lasting diplomatic legacy, aiming for achievements like ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, rather than pursuing ideological wars.
57% : The 2015 Iran nuclear negotiations ultimately resulted in the fragile Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
56% : The prospect for a new agreement between Iran and Trump appears significantly stronger compared to the fragile 2015 JCPOA, largely due to six major factors.
49% : Trump Seeks a Diplomatic Legacy, Not War Trump is primarily driven by strategic goals as well as personal ambitions rather than ideological disputes.
46% : U.S.-Iran Bilateral Talks Offer a Greater Prospect of Agreement Than the P5+1 Format Unlike the 2015 JCPOA, which involved six world powers alongside Iran, the 2025 negotiations between Trump and Tehran are fundamentally bilateral, with Oman serving only as a mediator.
46% : According to this mechanism, if no new deal is reached, the automatic re-imposition of UN sanctions could take effect in October 2025 at the request of the UK, France, or Germany without requiring a new Security Council vote.
42% : In contrast to some mainstream Republican leaders, Trump operates independently of neoconservative hawks and pro-Israel lobbies.
42% : However, with Trump now in the White House and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, the political calculus has shifted.
37% : Third, Iran now has stronger incentives to reach an agreement to avoid a devastating conflict and the automatic reimposition of UN sanctions through the "snapback" mechanism.
36% : Iran Iran has strong incentives to reach an agreement rather than risk a military confrontation with Trump, which could result in airstrikes on its nuclear infrastructure.
15% : Trump has internalized the historical lessons of George W. Bush's costly and prolonged war in Iraq and is unlikely to entangle the U.S. in another Middle Eastern military conflict.

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