Trump could put American democracy in peril, writes NIALL FERGUSON

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

66% : If the election were held today, judging by early polling in the swing states, Trump would comfortably win.
54% : Then the race moves to New Hampshire on January 23 for the first true primary -- a straightforward ballot run by the state government -- when registered Republicans and Independents will get to vote for the Republican Party's contenders.
49% : If just over half those votes had gone the other way, Trump might have won.
48% : Why is Trump looking so strong?
45% : This year's election, too, will hinge on decisions in more or less the same swing states (to which you can add North Carolina, where Trump won only narrowly).
41% : The reality is that Trump is as far ahead of the competition as George W. Bush was 24 years ago, and even further ahead than Bush's father in 1992.
41% : More than 159 million Americans voted in the 2020 election, but the outcome was decided by a margin of 311,000 -- the total number of votes by which Biden beat Trump in six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
41% : Although no third-party candidate as yet seems likely to gain enough votes to decide the result -- whether for or against Trump -- one might conceivably be found by April.
40% : Other bumps in the road to watch out for include the likely attempt by House Republicans to impeach Biden over his and his son Hunter's business dealings (which could also backfire, as impeaching Bill Clinton backfired for Republicans in 1996); and the possible appearance on the ballots of a 'No Labels' candidate seeking to offer Independent voters a non-partisan option.
39% : But if they choose Trump, might they be bidding farewell to constitutional government? Empire or Republic?
33% : However, like McCain, she will struggle to beat the frontrunner in the South, including in her home state of South Carolina, where she lags 28 points behind Trump.
30% : Indeed, when you reflect on the narrowness of Biden's margin of victory, you can see why Trump challenged the results.
30% : Trump would certainly have a strong personal incentive to dismiss all the federal legal cases against him, to ignore the state cases, and to purge the 'deep state'.
29% : This year's Gruesome Twosome are President Biden (pictured) and his Vice President, Kamala Harris, writes Niall Ferguson He added that Dick Dastardly is Donald Trump (pictured), whose political career seemed to have imploded after he incited a mob to try to overturn the 2020 election result This year's Gruesome Twosome are President Biden and his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who will campaign by chilling the blood of Democratic voters with dire warnings that democracy will die if they are not re-elected.
29% : Yet Trump faces a unique challenge for a presidential candidate -- he is going to have to campaign while defending himself in four criminal cases: two for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election (one federal, one in the state of Georgia); the third for allegedly falsifying business records (New York); the fourth for wrongly handling classified documents (federal).
28% : However, if Trump were tried and convicted in any of these cases, recent polls suggest he would suffer a significant and perhaps decisive loss of support in the swing states.
26% : The Democrats will also argue that Trump 2.0 would pose a threat to international as well as domestic order.
25% : But no one seriously believes Vice President Harris would stand a better chance against Trump.
24% : Dick Dastardly is, of course, Donald Trump, whose political career seemed to have imploded after he incited a mob to try to overturn the 2020 election result -- with more than 2,000 rioters storming Capitol Hill -- but who now has at least a 50:50 chance of securing re-election.
24% : There is a theory gaining traction that the state's former governor, Nikki Haley, could pose a serious threat to Trump in New Hampshire.
21% : No one seriously believes Vice President Kamala Harris (pictured) would stand a better chance against Trump, writes Niall Ferguson Some well-known names have already dropped out -- notably the former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (Republican) earlier this week.
20% : So if you feel like a flutter on this Wacky Race, don't bet against Trump getting the Republican nomination.
19% : Say what you like about Donald Trump, America's adversaries risked nothing like these outrageous acts when he was in the White House.
18% : True, the attempts by Democrats to use 'lawfare' against Trump have thus far backfired, unless they cynically wanted Trump as the Republican nominee, assuming they could beat him.

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