Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

57% : For example, we have calculated an index of economic growth and optimism on every day since 1944, gathered historical approval ratings for every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt and derived a formula for predicting state election outcomes using these and other local factors.
49% : However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren’t related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election.
41% : We also tested whether incumbent presidents do better when they run for reelection (they do) and whether all of these factors are less predictive of voters’ choices when political polarization is high (they are).Right now, Trump leads Biden in most polls of the swing states that will decide the election, but the “fundamentals” favor Biden.
40% : Here, I'll give you the non-wonky version of how the forecast works, offer a few tips on how to read it and explain why we think forecasts are valuable in the first place.
31% : However, Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance, so this election could still very much go either way.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.