Florida Is (Hypothetically) Winnable for Biden and the Democrats | Washington Monthly

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

72% : The memo also argues that Biden is "uniquely strong with seniors, an influential, reliable, and large voting group" and accuses Trump and Senator Rick Scott (who is up for re-election this year and only won by a tenth of a percentage point in 2018) of plotting to cut Social Security and Medicare.
67% : Trump won it twice, but only by 1.2 points in 2016 and 3.4 in 2020.
59% : In a March poll of Florida voters by WMNF radio, Trump led by 6 points overall and led in every age group.
51% : Not only did Trump grow his Florida margin in 2020, but he also did so in an election year when nearly every other state ticked bluer.
49% : Whether to compete for the Sunshine State is a vexing challenge for political strategists.
41% : No presidential candidate has won Florida with a margin bigger than 5.7 since George H. W. Bush in 1988, with Bill Clinton winning it once and Barack Obama twice.
37% : Trump has been scrambling to have it both ways on abortion, taking credit for overturning Roe v. Wade to galvanize Republican base voters while criticizing total or near-total bans to woo swing voters.
35% : And the relevance of the two local elections mentioned may be overstated, as both Duval County (mainly composed of Jacksonville) and Keen's House District 35 voted for Biden over Trump in 2020.
33% : Many of these pro-choice Republicans are not single-issue voters -- if they were, they wouldn't be Republicans -- and will still vote for Trump.
29% : As long as Biden is outpacing Trump in the fundraising war, and as long as Biden doesn't collapse in Florida trial heat polling, early investment in Florida makes sense.
26% : Without polls that show Biden ahead of or tied with Donald Trump in the Sunshine State, any argument about winnability will be based on hypotheticals.
25% : They claimed it forced the relatively cash-constrained Trump to sweat Florida and spend less in other battleground states where Trump fell short.
25% : Either way, we can't attribute DeSantis's fall mainly to lost support among Trump diehards following his failed presidential bid.
3% : The Biden campaign is well positioned to squeeze Trump on this issue, rightly blaming him for creating the Supreme Court that scrapped Roe and made "terrible" bans possible, and potentially-if Trump continues to lurch to the middle awkwardly -- stoking a rift between Trump and anti-abortion absolutists in the Florida GOP.

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