The 5 'known unknowns' that will define 2024 | CNN Politics
- Bias Rating
-98% Extremely Liberal
- Reliability
- Policy Leaning
66% Very Conservative
- Politician Portrayal
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-100%
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Bias Score Analysis
The A.I. bias rating includes policy and politician portrayal leanings based on the author’s tone found in the article using machine learning. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral.
Sentiments
Overall Sentiment
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- Conservative
| Sentence | Sentiment | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| "It has promised an array of investigations (starting with the business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, and potentially including the treatment of the January 6 insurrectionists), warned that it may impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (as well as possibly other officials) and already laid plans to threaten a default on the federal debt to demand cuts in federal spending, including potentially Social Security and Medicare." | Negative | -8% Liberal |
| "The other is that the eventual winner beats Trump only by, in effect, out-Trumping him in on culture war issues such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, gun control, immigration, the coronavirus response and other issues." | Negative | -80% Liberal |
| Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, three other presidents who faced widespread discontent early in their presidencies, saw their approval rating rise as they neared reelection when attitudes about the economy improved. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, three other presidents who faced widespread discontent early in their presidencies, saw their approval rating rise as they neared reelection when attitudes about the economy improved. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, three other presidents who faced widespread discontent early in their presidencies, saw their approval rating rise as they neared reelection when attitudes about the economy improved. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| Some Republican strategists see a model in Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's relatively stronger performance in the Atlanta suburbs after a term in which he advanced a staunchly conservative agenda (including signing a six-week abortion ban) but demonstrated his independence by rejecting Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election there. | Positive | 8% Conservative |
| Some Republican strategists see a model in Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's relatively stronger performance in the Atlanta suburbs after a term in which he advanced a staunchly conservative agenda (including signing a six-week abortion ban) but demonstrated his independence by rejecting Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election there. | Positive | 8% Conservative |
| If inflation recedes, that same current could lift Biden (whose approval rating already has ticked up since his party's midterm showing). | Positive | 2% Conservative |
| Democrats are confident enough of the answer that most are rooting for Trump to win the nomination. | Positive | 0% Conservative |
| During the Iraq War in 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, then the defense secretary, coined a famous phrase to describe exactly that kind of situation. | Negative | -2% Liberal |
| Most Americans now appear to view elections for the White House and Congress less as a choice between two individuals than between which party they want to set the nation's direction, a dynamic that will limit the political impact of judgments about Biden's personal capacity. | Negative | -2% Liberal |
| Trump's strengths and weaknesses in the 2024 GOP nomination fight, in key respects, resembles his situation in 2016: now, as then, he's facing resistance from most Republicans with at least a four-year college degree, but polling well among Republicans without one. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| And even these prospects don't exclude what Rumsfeld called the "unknown unknowns" - the possibilities "we don't know [that] we don't know," as he put it then. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| That could leave the nominee little (if any) more marketable than Trump himself in the white-collar suburbs from Pennsylvania to Arizona that have trended sharply away from the GOP since his emergence.nn2. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| Before the midterm election, the key question surrounding Joe Biden might have been whether he would face a serious primary challenge, which often has foreshadowed defeat for an incumbent president. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| Behind that coalition, Democrats beat every Trump-backed Senate and gubernatorial candidate in the five states that decided the 2020 election by flipping to Biden after backing Trump in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| Behind that coalition, Democrats beat every Trump-backed Senate and gubernatorial candidate in the five states that decided the 2020 election by flipping to Biden after backing Trump in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| Behind that coalition, Democrats beat every Trump-backed Senate and gubernatorial candidate in the five states that decided the 2020 election by flipping to Biden after backing Trump in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| Those winning Democratic candidates all prevailed by bigger margins than Biden did two years earlier - a stunning divergence from the usual pattern of the president's party losing ground in midterms. | Negative | -6% Liberal |
| One is that Trump openly disparages and undermines the eventual nominee - in the most extreme case by launching a third-party general election bid. | Negative | -8% Liberal |
| But, even in such an increasingly parliamentary environment, Biden will likely need to convince a critical slice of swing voters that he can effectively perform the job before they reelect him to it. | Negative | -8% Liberal |
| Georgia showed that the suburban voters now rejecting the Trump-stamped GOP "can go back and forth depending on the quality of the candidate and the kind of campaign they run," says long-time GOP pollster Whit Ayres.nn5. | Negative | -8% Liberal |
| It has promised an array of investigations (starting with the business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, and potentially including the treatment of the January 6 insurrectionists), warned that it may impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (as well as possibly other officials) and already laid plans to threaten a default on the federal debt to demand cuts in federal spending, including potentially Social Security and Medicare. | Negative | -4% Liberal |
| For many voters, such an election might reduce to a binary choice: whether or not they would again entrust Trump with control over the federal government. | Negative | -10% Liberal |
| The key unknown for Republicans in 2024 may be whether they can regain ground in the well-educated and racially diversifying suburbs of the five Trump-to-Biden states. | Negative | -2% Liberal |
| The key unknown for Republicans in 2024 may be whether they can regain ground in the well-educated and racially diversifying suburbs of the five Trump-to-Biden states. | Negative | -2% Liberal |
| Yet, despite the Democrats' unexpectedly strong performance, the midterms showed warning signs for Biden among the broader electorate: a solid majority in the exit polls said they disapproved of his job performance, and two-thirds of voters said they did not want him to run again. | Negative | -12% Liberal |
| But, overall, the party mostly preserved the same coalition of voters who turned out in decisive numbers to oppose Trump in 2018 and 2020 - young people, people of color, college-educated White voters, secular and LGBTQ adults, and residents of the largest metropolitan areas, with women in each group usually leaning more markedly toward them. | Negative | -12% Liberal |
| Simon Rosenberg, the Democratic strategist who was the most prominent public skeptic of the "red wave" theory in 2022, previewed that line of attack on Monday when he tweeted a list of controversies swirling around Trump and the Republican Party and declared: "GOP all MAGA, all the time." | Negative | -14% Liberal |
| Rumsfeld puckishly described a circumstance in which we do not know the answer to a question, but we do know that the answer will matter to the outcome, as a "known unknown." | Negative | -16% Liberal |
| Do voters consider Biden still up to the job? | Negative | -18% Liberal |
| nnWhether the GOP nominates Trump again in its 2024 presidential primaries - a dynamic that in turn will be powerfully influenced by whether he faces a criminal indictment and how GOP voters react if he does - looms, in my view, as the most important "known unknown" for 2024. | Negative | -20% Liberal |
| If Republicans nominate Trump again in 2024, no other factor on this list may matter much. | Negative | -22% Liberal |
| The classic example came in 1984, when Ronald Reagan's 49 state landslide was fueled by a rapid decline in unemployment, even though it still exceeded 7 | Negative | -22% Liberal |
| And they begin with the fateful decision about Trump hurtling toward the GOP.nn1. | Negative | -24% Liberal |
| If DeSantis or another alternative beats Trump, the GOP will confront a pair of bookended risks. | Negative | -24% Liberal |
| The incoming GOP majority has already set a confrontational course toward Biden. | Negative | -26% Liberal |
| What's unknown is how many voters, even if they feel better about the economy, still will consider Biden too old (he'll turn 82 shortly after the 2024 election) or diminished for the office. | Negative | -28% Liberal |
| Partially for that reason, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, if he runs, may be better positioned than any of Trump's 2016 rivals to consolidate the GOP voters skeptical of him (though he's hardly guaranteed of success in that). | Negative | -30% Liberal |
| Partially for that reason, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, if he runs, may be better positioned than any of Trump's 2016 rivals to consolidate the GOP voters skeptical of him (though he's hardly guaranteed of success in that). | Negative | -30% Liberal |
| One key difference from 2016 is that more of the party elite - including elected officials and fundraisers - are openly resisting Trump, fearing that Democrats are right in their prevailing belief he cannot win again. | Negative | -32% Liberal |
| The possibility that Trump could face a criminal indictment - either on the evidence the January 6 committee detailed on Monday or separate investigations from the Justice Department on his stockpiling of classified documents and the Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney on his efforts to overturn the election there - adds another new wrinkle. | Negative | -32% Liberal |
| The powerful evidence for a possible criminal case that the bipartisan January 6, 2021, congressional committee presented against former President Donald Trump on Monday underscores the biggest uncertainty looming over the approaching 2024 presidential campaign. | Negative | -40% Liberal |
| Does the Republican-majority House do more damage to Biden - or to the GOP? | Negative | -44% Liberal |
| But Democrats are strikingly confident that on balance the narrow GOP House majority will do more damage to the Republican brand by instigating political fights distant from the daily concerns of most Americans and by elevating divisive figures like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio who are poised to reinforce the image of Trump-affiliated extremism that hurt Republicans in 2022. | Negative | -44% Liberal |
| But Democrats are strikingly confident that on balance the narrow GOP House majority will do more damage to the Republican brand by instigating political fights distant from the daily concerns of most Americans and by elevating divisive figures like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio who are poised to reinforce the image of Trump-affiliated extremism that hurt Republicans in 2022. | Negative | -44% Liberal |
| But Democrats are strikingly confident that on balance the narrow GOP House majority will do more damage to the Republican brand by instigating political fights distant from the daily concerns of most Americans and by elevating divisive figures like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio who are poised to reinforce the image of Trump-affiliated extremism that hurt Republicans in 2022. | Negative | -44% Liberal |
| Veteran conservative strategist Bill Kristol, now a staunch Trump critic, says he initially worried that a backlash from rank-and-file GOP voters against any indictment might boost Trump; now Kristol believes it will only compound the sense he carries too much baggage to win another general election. | Negative | -50% Liberal |
| Veteran conservative strategist Bill Kristol, now a staunch Trump critic, says he initially worried that a backlash from rank-and-file GOP voters against any indictment might boost Trump; now Kristol believes it will only compound the sense he carries too much baggage to win another general election. | Negative | -50% Liberal |
| The other is that the eventual winner beats Trump only by, in effect, out-Trumping him in on culture war issues such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, gun control, immigration, the coronavirus response and other issues. | Negative | -30% Liberal |
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Contributing sentiments towards policy:
46% : It has promised an array of investigations (starting with the business activities of his son, Hunter Biden, and potentially including the treatment of the January 6 insurrectionists), warned that it may impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (as well as possibly other officials) and already laid plans to threaten a default on the federal debt to demand cuts in federal spending, including potentially Social Security and Medicare.10% : The other is that the eventual winner beats Trump only by, in effect, out-Trumping him in on culture war issues such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, gun control, immigration, the coronavirus response and other issues.
*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.